Bitcoin price has finally moved, fireworks are sure to follow

Bitcoin price has finally moved, fireworks are sure to follow

This week, Bitcoin (BTCIt raised investors’ hopes and then left them high and dry again.

Traders have placed most of their attention on the BTC price pushing through the resistance of a long-term bearish trendline, but according to “Bitcoin price simply ‘consolidated’ its way across the trend line by trading sideways as the price has been between $18,500 and $24,500 over the past 114 days,” said Cointelegraph analyst Ray Salmond.

At the time of writing, BTC price continues to fight at $20,000, and it is uncertain whether the level will hold as support or not.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Whalemap shows the three price areas that investors should focus on.

Major BTC price support areas. Source: Whalemap

Whalemap told Cointelegraph, “So far, resistance at $20,380 – which is due to whale accumulation ~20,020 BTC – is doing well, and the latest rejection has been almost an exact dollar.”

Whalemap mode:

“Our support has remained unchanged since the drop from $30K. It is located at $19,174 and was formed on June 18, 2022, with a staggering build-up of 101,300 BTC by whale wallets. There is also another resistance above $20,380, at 21,543 But first, we need to at least get past $20,380.”

From a technical analysis perspective, on the daily time frame, Bollinger Bands are restricted, BTC futures are open Reached a record high above 604000And the price is trading outside long-term trendline resistance – all signs that a trend movement is in the process of forming.

Related: So, what if the price of Bitcoin continues to drop? This is why it’s time to start paying attention

As shown in the chart below, investors’ appetite for risk continues to decline, and it should come as no surprise that risky assets are the first to see an outflow and are ignored by investors during a bear market.

Investors’ appetite for risk. Source: Bank of America Global Research

While BTC’s and Ether’s (ETHPrices have ignored the recent volatility in the stock markets, and the policy of the United States Federal Reserve and the possibility of another wave of strong selling in the stock markets may lead to the next phase of the cryptocurrency market.

What’s next for Bitcoin?

Right now, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are essentially in an area where a combination of bullish and bearish factors can determine the next direction of the trend.

As reported by Delphi Digital, Bitcoin is currently following the path of previous market cycles.

Bitcoin Market Cycle 2018 vs. Bitcoin Market Cycle 2020. Source: Delphi Digital

Zooming in, we can see what Delphi Digital has called a “super-similarity to the 2018 cycle”.

2018 Bitcoin Market Cycle vs. 2022 Bitcoin Market Cycle. Source: Delphi Digital

there a bunch of bitcoins, crypto and stock market metrics that show convergence and support the possibility of a recovery in the short term, but overall, the overall trend favors the downside. If stocks take some rest and move higher, the close correlation between BTC, Ether and the stock markets would suggest a similar pattern of price action in the cryptocurrency.

With that said, the Bitcoin relief rally is likely to culminate at $27,500, where the 200-day moving average is located. The most encouraging action in the short term from Bitcoin is either to continue in the same range, keeping $20,000 and $18,400 as support, or a high volume breakout that removes the current 116-day range with a series of daily closes above the 25-high range, 200 .

The eventual reversal of the 200-MA support and a series of weekly higher highs on the candlestick chart would be early signs of a potential long-term bullish reversal, but that looks highly unlikely given the overall headwind facing Bitcoin.

This newsletter was written by Big Smokey, author of The Humble Pontificator Substack and Cointelegraph’s resident newsletter author. Every Friday, Big Smokey will write market insights, guides, analyzes and early bird research on potential emerging trends in the cryptocurrency market.