Bitcoin (BTC) price has kept investors waiting for a big move, but there is a possibility that slow and steady price consolidation will continue to keep the market waiting.
Bitcoin price has maintained a larger downtrend for most of this year. Since the price of BTC has been trading below the $20,000 mark for more than two weeks, market participants are looking for signs of a breakout.
With no major catalysts for a breakout in sight, many in the market are considering the idea of whether the $19,000 range is the bottom of the market.
The bigger picture of Bitcoin (BTC) price
After the June 2022 pullback that sent the bitcoin price down more than 35%, the BTC price has maintained a range bound momentum. In mid-August, the bitcoin price made a local high of around $25,000, but as the bulls were unable to sustain the price above that level, another decline of around 25% followed over the next few weeks.
After nearly four months of stagnating price action, it makes sense to look at BTC’s long-term trend to better understand when bitcoin’s price could actually fall.
Data from Santiment showed that the average dollar life span invested (MDIA) is at an all-time high, which means no coin distribution is happening for a long time. On the other hand, the trend of MVRV (3 years) for the past year and a half is very similar to the situation 2017-2019.
It is worth noting that at the end of 2018, when the price of MVRV had the same pattern, it fell around the same level.
Moreover, the volume of social communication has decreased significantly since the market top, and sentiment has been much lower than high at one time.
Usually, when sentiment is negative, the price tends to rise, reversing the herd.
Market participants are Rekt
The loss of profits made in the Bitcoin network shows that in BTC, participants experienced losses at the same level as in 2019, however, in terms of the US dollar, the losses are much higher as the price of BTC has grown almost 10 times since then. NPRL is a good indicator that tells us how satisfied market participants are.
Moreover, Glassnode data highlighted that bitcoin price could be set for a flurry of volatility, with realized volatility and options dropping to historical lows. Interestingly, futures open interest has reached an all-time high, although liquidations have been at an all-time low.
Thus, looking at the current state of long-term data can give some hope to Bitcoin HODLers; However, history does not always repeat itself. In the event of a bearish outcome, BTC price could turn to $16,000 and then the $14,000 price level.
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