bitcoin bear

Will Bitcoin see a repeat for November 2018

Bitcoin price is still just under $19,000 at the time of writing, not far from the local low of $18,300. When Consumer Price Index (CPI) And the Producer Price Index (PPI) data released last week, the price of BTC just dropped to this price level.

Bitcoin remains under $19,000. source: TradingView

Unexpectedly for many, a very rapid bounce occurred, catching Luxor by surprise. With November 02 – when feed it Meet again – Mind you, there is not much room for Bitcoin price to drop below this level at the moment. Moreover, a look at the chain indicates the possibility of another crash in the short term, although there are also positive signs.

as To CryptoQuant, a bearish market signal appears when the realized price of all long-term holders (blue line) exceeds the actual price of all coins purchased (red line) and when the price of BTC falls below the actual price of long-term holders and the realized price of all coins.

CryptoQuant Bitcoin Analysis
The potential downside of Bitcoin. source: CryptoQuant

The analysis concluded that the bitcoin price has been in a bear market for 124 days. In this regard, the drop from $6000 to $3,000 is comparable to the price drop from $30,000 to $18,000, as the percentage drop in the last bear market from $6000 to $3,000 was 50%.

However, the bottom may not have been seen yet:

The drop from $30.7K to $18.2K was 41%. A 50% drop from $30.7K would put BTC at $15K (-18% of the current price). Similar to the Delta price of 14.7 thousand dollars.

Contrasting data on the chain for Bitcoin

With Santiment, another major on-chain analytics service reports that the Bitcoin market needs to see perfect buildup right now, while small traders remain bearish and spreading doom and gloom.

However, contradictory data appear in this regard. Thus, small to medium-sized Bitcoin addresses (with 0.1 to 10 BTC) recently reached an all-time high of 15.9% of available supply. Meanwhile, whales containing 100 to 10,000 BTC recorded a 3-year low of 45.6% of the supply.

On the upside, Bitcoin saw a massive influx of coins from exchanges on October 18th. Santiment recorded the highest daily volume in 4 months, at 40,572 BTC. With this, the supply of coins on all exchanges decreased to 8.48%. This means that the risk of heavy selling in the future is at least somewhat reduced.

Santiment data from Bitcoin
Bitcoin exchange offer at 4-year low. source: Twitter

Bullish data was also reported by third major data provider Glassnode. Bitcoin supply That hasn’t moved in the past six months is approaching an all-time low. It currently stands at 18.12% of the circulating supply, or about 3.485 million BTC. glass Writes:

Historically, very low volumes of mobile phone supply usually occur after prolonged bear markets.

Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research LLC, recently quoted The old trader’s old saying, “Don’t cut short a boring market,” may apply more than ever to the Bitcoin market.

According to his analysis, realized volatility means retreat or actual volatility is at a two-year low and is recording one of the lowest levels ever.

Markets are heading for apathy, not excitement. BTC and ETH are indifferent. The S&P 500 is pretty much the opposite, with prices moving like a video game. This could also be another sign that the close TradFi/Crypto relationship has broken. If so, this is a long-term bullish for cryptocurrency.

So the volatility divergence could be a sign of this shift and eventually lead to a positive long-term trend.


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